{"id":2841,"date":"2024-11-14T09:32:09","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T08:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/freerohingyacoalition.org\/en\/?p=2841"},"modified":"2024-11-14T09:32:10","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T08:32:10","slug":"myanmar-looks-more-like-aseans-syria-than-a-democracy-in-waiting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/freerohingyacoalition.org\/en\/myanmar-looks-more-like-aseans-syria-than-a-democracy-in-waiting\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar looks more like ASEAN\u2019s Syria than a democracy-in-waiting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Maung Zarni | Published by The Jakarta Post<\/a> on November 6, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past three years since the Myanmar military seized power, the armed conflicts have morphed into a civil war, with anti-junta groups fighting for their own interests without a single, unifying vision, and the Rohingya people still caught in a decades-long genocide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LONDON<\/strong> \u2013 Almost four years after anti-coup protests engulfed my birthplace, Myanmar under Min Aung Hlaing\u2019s military junta looks more and more like Assad\u2019s Syria in the wake oft he United States\u2019 failed color revolution. The escalating conflict in the ASEAN country has morphed into a brutal civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past year, anti-junta ethic armies have made significant military gains against the Tatmadaw, Myanmar\u2019s China- and Russia-backed military junta that seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar\u2019s armed conflicts are, tragically, no longer a simple, binary morality tale of good versus evil. Yes, the Tatmadaw remains the country\u2019s largest armed organization and regularly commits atrocities. On their part, the anti-junta adversaries fighting \u201cthe common enemy\u201d also perpetrate their fair share of atrocities against localized \u201cenemy\u201d ethnic populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not all of these groups share an inclusive, democratic vision for the country of 55 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October, Nicholas Koumjian, head of the United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), wrote that war crimes and crimes against humanity were \u201cbeing committed with impunity across the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, the violence in Myanmar is both vertical (the central state versus the rest of society) and horizontal (internecine ethno-communal conflicts), with different parties spouting political bromides like \u201cdemocracy\u201d and \u201crevolution\u201d to justify their violent actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take Rakhine state. Civilians from all ethnicities in Rakhine have suffered, but especially vulnerable are the now stateless Rohingya people, who have been directly targeted in a slow genocide for over four decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rohingyas who survived Myanmar\u2019s state-organized genocide in 2017 have long been caught in what I call the \u201cgenocide triangle\u201d in the shifting alliance between the Myanmar military and Islamophobic Rakhine Buddhist nationalists since the country\u2019s independence in 1948.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the war-fleeing Rohingyas, anti-junta Rakhine groups like the Arkan Army (AA) have become the spearhead of a new wave of genocidal violence while talking up human rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce again, the Rohingya people are being driven from their homes and dying in scenes tragically reminiscent of the 2017 exodus,\u201d said Agn\u00e8s Callamard, secretary-general of Amnesty International.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut this time, they are facing persecution on two fronts, from the rebel Arakan Army and the Myanmar military, which is forcibly conscripting Rohingya men.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alarmingly, on Burmese- and Rakhine-language social media accounts, supporters of AA publicly cheer on Israel\u2019s ongoing genocide of \u201cMuslim terrorists\u201d in Palestine. Some of them express their admiration for the Jewish supremacist state as their Rakhine nation-building model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The junta\u2019s active campaign of mass conscription has also resulted in the panicked exodus of thousands of working age young men and women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In collaboration with the Myanmar junta, China has shut down Sino-Myanmar overland trade. Beijing is pressuring the anti-junta ethnic groups based in border areas to fall in line with its goal of ending the armed conflicts and reestablishing stability in Myanmar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequently, the prices of essential commodities like rice, medicine, food and machine oil have surged. Chinese authorities have added to the misery by cutting off water, electricity and the internet in rebel-controlled border regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are the junta\u2019s battlefield and territorial losses, then, a win for multiethnic peoples? Yes and no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, because these regions are ancestrally non-Myanmar ethnic regions where the junta\u2019s imposition of brutal military control for decades has generated so much local resentment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, because these armed groups have so far been unable to translate their military victories into policy victories that will bring communal stability (law and order), economic betterment, social and health services and education, and ultimately, an interethnic peace plan both within these regions and for the nation at large.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The junta\u2019s retaliatory aerial bombings have also hampered any efforts to rebuild local institutions or start new community structures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse still, the big picture of international power politics provides little hope for an end to this civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s significant policy shift to back the unpopular generals could not have come at a better time for the junta. Beijing has enabled the junta to operate, at least within Southeast Asia, as a de facto state. In October, the junta hosted the well-attended and important ASEANAPOL conference, while no UN member appears ready to recognize the anti-junta National Unity Government as the country\u2019s legitimate government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even under the chairmanship of Indonesia, ASEAN\u2019s big actor, the regional bloc has proven incapable of moving beyond its Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar. ASEAN\u2019s policy failure is due to its members\u2019 conflicting interests and divisions over how best to help end Myanmar\u2019s all-out civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of the Cold War, the US was seen, rightly or wrongly, by many pro-democracy activists as a force for good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington\u2019s vicious global war on terror post-9\/11, its failed attempt to build the unipolar world it planned to dictate and, presently, its unconditional support for Israel\u2019s genocide and ethnic cleansing in Palestine has shattered the US\u2019 image as the white knight of human rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, Washington\u2019s nominal backing of the Myanmar resistance has become both a moral and strategic liability. Understandably, China wants no group it sees as US lackeys to be in power next door.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently, activists and artists from the predominantly Buddhist nations of Cambodia and Vietnam organized a solidarity event for the people of Gaza. Their conspicuous silence about the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, another predominantly Buddhist ASEAN nation, speaks volumes about just how morally uninspiring Myanmar\u2019s anti-junta resistance is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No moral citizen of the world wants to support a resistance movement that demands human rights, freedom and democracy only for their own ethnic groups, but refuses to extend the same rights to Rohingya genocide victims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four years into the anti-coup movement, I have had the time and privilege to reflect on my early post-coup optimism. On March 26, 2021, I wrote an optimistic op-ed in The<\/em> Washington Post,<\/em> shared my hope for a better future in Myanmar with the BBC World Service, and argued confidently that post-Suu Kyi Myanmar was going to be morally different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I believed that the Nway Oo Revolution (Myanmar Spring) and its multiethnic armed resistance, which I supported financially and otherwise, would usher in an era of progressive change and transform my homeland into an inclusive society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alas, my optimism has been proven rather premature. Last week, UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Julia Bishop pointedly told a UN General Assembly committee: \u201cMyanmar actors must move beyond the current zero-sum mentality. There can be little progress on addressing the needs of the people while armed conflict continues across the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar people who care about the country\u2019s future must swallow the bitter pill of reconciling with those they view as \u201cenemies\u201d. Otherwise, our strife-torn country will become permanently fractured, like Assad\u2019s Syria.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Maung Zarni | Published by The Jakarta Post on November 6, 2024 Over the past three years since the Myanmar military seized power, the armed conflicts have morphed into <\/p>\n

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