{"id":284,"date":"2017-11-14T14:32:30","date_gmt":"2017-11-14T14:32:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/freerohingyacoalition.org\/en\/?p=284"},"modified":"2018-05-15T14:42:21","modified_gmt":"2018-05-15T14:42:21","slug":"the-muslim-overpopulation-myth-that-just-wont-die","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/freerohingyacoalition.org\/en\/the-muslim-overpopulation-myth-that-just-wont-die\/","title":{"rendered":"The Muslim Overpopulation Myth That Just Won\u2019t Die"},"content":{"rendered":"By<\/em> Krithika Varagur | Published by The Atlantic<\/a> on November 14, 2017\r\n\r\nThe sheer number of Rohingya Muslims fleeing genocide in Burma\u2014over 10,000 per day<\/a> since late August\u2014has become too huge to ignore. It\u2019s the reason why U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will visit Burma on Wednesday<\/a>. In his briefings on the crisis, Tillerson will likely encounter another question of numbers: the claim, voiced often by Burmese officials and hardline Buddhist monks, that Rohingya Muslim \u201coverpopulation\u201d threatens their country\u2019s Buddhist majority.\r\n\r\n\u201cThe population growth of Rohingya Muslims is 10 times higher than that of the Rakhine [Buddhists],\u201d said Win Myaing, a spokesperson for Burma\u2019s western Rakhine State, where most of the stateless Rohingya live. That was in 2013, when the state passed a controversial two-child limit<\/a> <\/b>law that applied only to Muslims. Just last month, an administrator of a \u201cMuslim-free\u201d village outside Yangon told The New York Times<\/a><\/i>, \u201c[Rohingya] are not welcome here because they are violent and they multiply like crazy, with so many wives and children.\u201d The motto<\/a> of Burma\u2019s immigration ministry is, \u201cThe Earth will not swallow a race to extinction, but another [race] will.\u201d\r\n\r\nThe specter of an exploding Rohingya population\u2014fueled by <\/b>incendiary content<\/a> on social media\u2014has been weaponized in Burma\u2019s ethnic cleansing. It haunts everyone from the military and Buddhist nationalists to ordinary Burmese citizens. I myself often come across this reprinted claim. Despite its clear attribution to sources like extremist monks, I started to wonder if it was true. It\u2019s not.\r\n\r\nIn fact, according to a study published in 2013, there was a net outflow of Rohingya from Burma after 1950<\/a>\u2014and that was before the unprecedented exodus of the last three months. Moreover, Burma\u2019s Muslim population has been stable at around 4 percent<\/a> since the 1980s, according to the country\u2019s own census.\r\n\r\nThe trope of Muslim overpopulation is reliably powerful anywhere in the world where there is a sizable Muslim immigrant or minority population, from India to Western Europe.\r\n\r\nHindu nationalists often fan anxiety<\/a> about Muslim population growth; the proportion of Muslims in India grew about 0.8 percent between 2001 and 2011, to 14.2 percent. \u201cIf this remains the situation, one should forget about their existence in one\u2019s own country by 2025,\u201d said the leader of a major Hindu nationalist organization last year<\/a>. But the fertility gap between Muslims and Hindus in India is narrowing fast<\/a>, and the greatest birthrate disparities are between states, not religions: Hindu women in the very poor state of Bihar have about two more children<\/a> each than Muslim women in more developed Andhra Pradesh.\r\n\r\nSimilar concerns echo across countries like France, Germany, the U.K., and the Netherlands. Although Muslims make up less than 10 percent of the total population in each of these countries, perceived overpopulation has been at the center of anti-immigration discourse. About 7.5 percent of France is Muslim, yet on average French people believe Muslims constitute about one in three<\/a> people in the country. Although Muslim women in Western Europe do currently have more children than their non-Muslim counterparts, research shows that European Muslims\u2019 fertility rate is also declining<\/a> much faster, so their fertility rates will likely converge over time. (However, in this context, fertility isn\u2019t the only issue; a wave of Muslim immigration over the past few years has reinforced some Europeans\u2019 concerns about Muslim population growth.)\r\n\r\n
Why does the overpopulation myth persist worldwide, even though it\u2019s typically demonstrably false (like in Burma) or nowhere near the epidemic that its proponents assert (like in Europe and India)? It\u2019s true that the global Muslim population is growing<\/a>, and fast. But it\u2019s not growing at the same speed across regions. And the trope seems to have the most power not where Muslim populations are actually growing the fastest\u2014like sub-Saharan Africa\u2014but in places where they are culturally distinct minorities.There\u2019s nothing inherent in Islam to link it to higher fertility\u2014in fact, it\u2019s not a particularly natalist<\/a>, or pro-birth, religion. Eight of the nine classic schools of Islamic law permit contraception. Many Muslim states, including Pakistan, have supported family planning. The growth of the global Muslim population was, according to a 2011 Pew Center<\/a> report, due to both a \u201cyouth bulge\u201d\u2014an unusually high number of young Muslim people, which peaked around 2000\u2014 and a higher overall fertility rate for Muslim women as a group.On the latter point, a major takeaway of the Pew report (and its companion from this year<\/a>) is that fertility has much less to do with religion and much more to do with economics<\/a>, social services, women\u2019s empowerment, and conflict. The fertility rate across all 49 Muslim-majority countries fell from 4.3 children per woman in 1990-95 to about 2.9 in 2010-15. This was still higher than the global fertility rate in 2015, but it\u2019s a strikingly fast drop given the fact that it took some Western European countries nearly a century<\/a> to transition from six children per woman to three.\r\n\r\nThe claim about Muslim overpopulation falls apart in fascinating ways when examined more closely. The fastest fertility drop in modern history happened in the Islamic theocracy of Iran. In 1950, Iranian women had about seven children each; today they have about 1.68, fewer than Americans. What changed? In 1989, the country\u2019s leaders realized that the the high birth rate was straining the young republic. In response, the Supreme Leader issued fatwas encouraging birth control and contraception, and the Health Ministry propagated family planning counseling, rural health centers, and contraceptive distribution across the country. Iran also made girls\u2019 education a development priority<\/a> as it sought to rebuild civil society after the Iran-Iraq War, which ended in 1988, so more girls than ever started to attend (strictly gender-segregated) schools. Everywhere<\/a>, there is an inverse relationship between years of schooling and fertility rates.\r\n\r\nIn the world\u2019s largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia, fertility rates dropped<\/a>between the 1960s and the 1990s, from about 5.6 children per woman to 2.3, as the Suharto dictatorship instituted a vigorous, centralized family planning program and made improvements to girls\u2019 education. Those government services were decentralized after democracy came to the archipelago in 1998 and, predictably, fertility rates have been creeping up again<\/a>. Today, Indonesia\u2019s majority-Christian but less developed eastern provinces<\/a> have a higher birthrate than the more developed, Muslim-majority western ones\u2014a testament to the correlation between economic development and fertility.\r\n\r\nBut it\u2019s unlikely that these, or any, facts about Muslim demographics will change minds anywhere. In a demographics report<\/a>, Nicholas Eberstadt and Apoorva Shah, researchers at the American Enterprise Institute, write: \u201cThere remains a widely perceived notion\u2014still commonly held within intellectual, academic, and policy circles in the West and elsewhere\u2014that \u2018Muslim\u2019 societies are especially resistant to embarking upon the path of demographic and familial change that has transformed population profiles in Europe, North America, and other \u2018more developed\u2019 areas.\u201d\r\n\r\nIn places like Burma, where the Muslim overpopulation trope is now deeply rooted, facts may have even less sway. \u201cRepeated exposure is a big factor in determining the \u2018stickiness\u2019 of misinformation,\u201d said Sander van der Linden, a social psychologist at the University of Cambridge. He pointed to the mere-exposure effect, a tendency to develop a preference for things simply because we\u2019re familiar with them, and the illusory-truth effect, a tendency to believe information after repeated exposure. \u201cBoth point to the fact that the more a falsehood is repeated, the more likely people are to believe it,\u201d he said, adding that political leaders have long understood this concept on an intuitive level. \u201cConsider the \u2018big lie\u2019 law of propaganda: \u2018If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.\u2019 \u2026 We\u2019ve seen many \u2018big lies\u2019 fly by in current debates, and some people continue to believe them.\u201d (After reading a few hundred stories on the Rohingya crisis, I was almost one of them.)\r\n\r\nWhat\u2019s more, in Burma, where open internet access is less than a decade old, news content does not necessarily get evaluated critically. As one observer put it recently<\/a>, for the Burmese, \u201cThe entire internet is Facebook and Facebook is the internet,\u201d so there is plenty of opportunity for repeated exposure to incendiary fake news<\/a> about the Rohingya.\r\n\r\nThe consequences of the Muslim overpopulation myth are chilling. They\u2019re also sadly ironic, because the myth has likely been counterproductive for its propagators. Given the socioeconomic underpinnings of fertility, the targeted persecution in Burma may have made high Rohingya birth rates a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are only a few factors<\/a> that reliably decrease the fertility rate in any developing country: more schooling for girls, the expectation that one\u2019s existing children will survive (due to healthcare and freedom from conflict), access to contraception, and job opportunities for women. <\/b>By denying Rohingya women all of the above, the Burmese military may be creating the exact result that its supporters feared in the first place.\r\n\r\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Krithika Varagur | Published by The Atlantic on November 14, 2017 The sheer number of Rohingya Muslims fleeing genocide in Burma\u2014over 10,000 per day since late August\u2014has become too <\/p>\n

continue reading<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-history-of-the-slow-genocide"],"rise-blocks_total_comments":27,"rise-blocks_categories":[{"term_id":20,"name":"History of the Slow Genocide","slug":"history-of-the-slow-genocide","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":20,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":5,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":20,"category_count":5,"category_description":"","cat_name":"History of the Slow Genocide","category_nicename":"history-of-the-slow-genocide","category_parent":0}],"rise-blocks_excerpt":"By Krithika Varagur | Published by The Atlantic on November 14, 2017 The sheer number of Rohingya Muslims fleeing genocide in Burma\u2014over 10,000 per day since late August\u2014has become too huge to ignore. It\u2019s the reason why U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will visit Burma on Wednesday. In his briefings on the crisis, Tillerson will likely encounter another question..","yoast_head":"\nThe Muslim Overpopulation Myth That Just Won\u2019t Die - Free Rohingya Coalition (FRC)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/freerohingyacoalition.org\/en\/the-muslim-overpopulation-myth-that-just-wont-die\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Muslim Overpopulation Myth That Just Won\u2019t Die - Free Rohingya Coalition (FRC)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Krithika Varagur | Published by The Atlantic on November 14, 2017 The sheer number of Rohingya Muslims fleeing genocide in Burma\u2014over 10,000 per day since late August\u2014has become too continue reading\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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